ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺧﻄﻮﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﻮﺍﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﻤﺎﻫﻴﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻈﻤﻰ
اﻟﻤﻠﺨﺺ ﺷﮭﺪت اﻟﺠﻤﺎھﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻨﻮات اﻷﺧﯿﺮة ﻧﮭﻀﺔ ﺗﻨﻤﻮﯾﺔ ﻛﺒﯿﺮة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺠﺎ ﻻت اﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﺔ واﻹﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯿﺔ أدت إﻟﻰ وﻛﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﺣﺘﻤﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻮاﻣﻞ ، زﯾﺎدة ﻣﻠﺤﻮﻇﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ اﻟﻨﻘﻞ واﻟﻤﻮاﺻﻼت ﺳﻮاء داﺧﻞ ﻣﺪن اﻟﺠﻤﺎھﯿﺮﯾﺔ أو ﺧﺎرﺟﮭﺎ ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﻣﻦ أھﻢ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺴﻠﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﻮر اﻟﺤﺪﯾﺚ ، اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ أﺧﺮى ﻣﺜﻞ ﻧﻤﻮ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺒﺎت واﻟﺴﻜﺎن ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎل اﻟﻄﺮق واﻟﻤﻮاﺻﻼت وإﻋﺎﻗﺎت ھﻮ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﻤﺮورﯾﺔ وﻣﺎ ﯾﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ وﻓﯿﺎت . وﺣﯿﺚ أن ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻟﯿﺔ وﻗﻮع ﻣﺜﻞ ھﺬه اﻟﺤﻮادث ﺗﺸﺘﺮك ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻋﺪﯾﺪة ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﻤﻠﮭﺎ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﺘﻔﺎوت ﻓﻲ ﻓﻠﻘﺪ وﺟﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻤﯿﺪ وﺟﺎﯾﻜﻮب أن ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺒﺎت واﻟﺴﻜﺎن ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ، ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮھﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺪة وﺧﻄﻮرة اﻟﺤﺎدث أھﻢ اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﺴﺒﺒ اﻟﻤﺠﺎل ﺔ ﻓﻲ وﻗﻮع اﻟﺤﻮادث ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ دول اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﻲ أﺟﺮﯾﺖ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ دراﺳﺎت ﻓﻲ ھﺬا . ﯾﮭﺪف اﻟﺒﺤﺚ إﻟﻰ دراﺳﺔ ھﺬﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮﯾﻦ ﻛﺄﺣﺪي اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﻤﺮورﯾﺔ ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﻨﺎول ھﺬا اﻟﺒﺤﺚ اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮا ،ﺑﺎﻟﺠﻤﺎھﯿﺮﯾﺔ اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ ﻻﺷﺘﻘﺎق ﻋﻼﻗﺎت ﺗﺮﺑﻂ ت اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ دراﺳﺎت اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﻤﺮورﯾﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ أﻋﺪاد اﻟﻮﻓﯿﺎت اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ وﻋﻼﻗﺘﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﻛﺒﺎت وﻋﺪد اﻟﺴﻜﺎن، وﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﻓﯿﺎت اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺒﺎت وﻋﺪد اﻟﺴﻜﺎن وﻋﻼﻗﺘﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺒﺎت واﻟﺴﻜﺎن ﻓﻲ ﺧﻤﺲ ﻧﻤﺎذج ﻟﻺﻧﺤﺪار اﻟﺨﻄﻲ وذﻟﻚ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﯿﺎ ﺆ ﺑﻌﺪد اﻟﻮﻓﯿﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ . ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻄﺮق اﻟﺒﺤﺚ إﻟﻰ دراﺳﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﺤﺴﺎب اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻮادث اﻟﻤﺮورﯾﺔ وﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﮭﺎ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ اﻟﺤﺼﻮل وﻧﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ اﻟﻤﻐﺮﺑﯿﺔ ، ﺑﻨﻤﺎذج ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺪراﺳﺎت وﻣﻨﮭﺎ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذﺟﯿﻦ اﻟﺒﺮﯾﻄﺎﻧﻲ ً ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻌﯿﻨﺎ ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﻣﺎﺗﺘ اﻟﺤﻮادث ﻜﺒﺪه اﻟﺠﻤﺎھﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺎﻗﺪ إﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ھﺬه. وﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻣﻦ اﻟﻠﺠﻨﺔ اﻟﺸﻌﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻟﻸﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﺎم اﻹدارة اﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ً واﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯿﺎ و -2007م1985 وﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﻤﺮور واﻟﺘﺮاﺧﯿﺺ ﺑﺸﻌﺒﯿﺔ ﻃﺮاﺑﻠﺲ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ،ﻟﻠﺪورﯾﺎت م، اﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻈﺎھﺮة ﻣﺤﻞ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﻦ أﻋﺪاد اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﻤﺮورﯾﺔ ﺑﻤﺨﺘﻠﻒ أﻧﻮاﻋﮭﺎ" ، إﺻﺎﺑﺎت ﺑﻠﯿﻐﺔ وﺑﺴﯿﻄﺔ ،ﻗﺘﻞ وأﺿﺮار " وﺑﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ أھﻢ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﺘﻔﻖ ، وﻛﺬﻟﻚ أﻋﺪاد اﻟﺴﻜﺎن واﻟﻤﺮﻛﺒﺎت ﺑﺎﻟﺠﻤﺎھﯿﺮﯾﺔ ﺧﻼل ھﺬه اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ﺣﯿﺚ أوﺿﺤﺖ اﻹرﺗﻔﺎع اﻟﻜﺒﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ، ﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﺣﺠﻢ وﺧﻄﻮرة اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﻤﺮورﯾﺔ ً ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﯿﺎ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮات ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﺪول اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ. وﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺴﺎﺋﺮ اﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ ، وﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺆﺷﺮات اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﺤﺚ ،ًﺧﺘﺎﻣﺎ اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﻤﺮورﯾﺔ وﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ إﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺟﮭﺎ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺒﺎت وﻋﺪد اﻟﺴﻜﺎن وأﺣﺪث اﻟﺘﻘﻨﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺖ اﻟﺪرا َﺼُ ﻠً ﺧ ، ﺗﻤﺖ ﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺘﮭﺎ ﺳﺔ إﻟﻰ إﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺟﺎت وﺗﻮﺻﯿﺎت ﺗﺮى أﻧﮭﺎ ﺟﺪﯾﺮة ﺑﺎﻹھﺘﻤﺎم ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻇﺎھﺮة ﺧﻄﻮرة اﻟﺤﻮادث اﻟﻤﺮورﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﻤﺎھﯿﺮﯾﺔ Abstract The Jamahiriya has witnessed in the last years a great development renaissance in the economic and social fields, led to a remarkable increase in transportation movement either inside as well as outside the towns of Jamahiriya. Consequently, as a direct result and in addition to others factors, as the increase of the number of vehicles and population, it was one of the negative results of the modern development in the field of roads and transportation was the traffic accidents and their causes like death and handicapped people. As the responsibility of such accidents, many factors were found to participate, it compose as a whole system varies its effect according to hardness and danger of the accident, so each of Smeed and Jakobe found that the number of population and vehicles are one of the most important reasons that cause accidents in may of the world’s countries on which ran their studies. This research aims to study these two variations, as the one the principal factors that cause traffic accidents in Libya. The research studied many mathematical models to derive relationship connecting the principal variables in the study of traffic accidents, describes the original number of deaths and its relationship with the total number of vehicles and population, and the original number of deaths related to all number of vehicles and population and the percentage between the number of vehicles and population in five suitable models for the regression line predict the number of deaths in the future. The research has also studied the special models of economic costs of traffic accidents and its results that has been reached by the help of British and the Moroccian models, trying to estimate the losses of Libya’s caused by the accidents. The field data and the information that collected by the General People’s Committee for General Justice and the General Administration for Patrolling, and the Division of Traffic and Licensing in Tripoli within the period 1985-2007, and which had a relationship with phenomenon of the study, like the number of traffic accidents in its different types of death; simple injuries, dangerous injuries, and damages, and also the number of population and vehicles in Libya during that period. Then by applying the important indications that that used internationally for the study of amount and danger of traffic accidents, the results showed the great increase in most indications compared by the world wide countries. Finally, based on the gained analytical results of indications and the economic losses due to accident results, using the development models, the research has cited appropriate conclusions and recommendations which considered to the important and fruitful to treat the most dangerous feature today, “traffic accidents.
ﺇﺑﺘﺴﺎﻡ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ.ﺑﺮﺑﺎﺵ (2008)
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